Trade agreements and tobacco control policy: analysis of the impact of FCTC on regulatory contents of trade agreements from 2001 to 2019

Background: This study aims to analyze the impact of Framework of Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) on regulatory contents of trade agreements from 2001 to 2019. Methods: A search of trade agreements from‘WTO Regional Free Trade Agreement Database’ using keywords including “tobacco”, “cigarette”, “smoking” and “FCTC” from May to August 2020 resulted in a total sample of 268 trade agreements, from which 69 trade agreements were coded and analyzed. Provisions in trade agreements, identified via the aforementioned keywords, were categorized into 6 trade measures. The word counts of the provisions containing; FCTC; were calculated. Chi-square tests were applied to analyze the differences of regulatory patterns between different time frames. The import and export values (USD) of tobacco products under trade agreements containing the term “FCTC” were further collected from the “International Trade Statistics 2001–2020” for understanding the impact of the provision on the trade flow. Results: Among 69 agreements, the percentage of trade agreements containing keyword as “FCTC” increased significantly from 0% to 2011 to 12% after 2011. A significant decrease of using trade measures as “the exclusion list” was found after 2011 (from 10% to 0). The word counts of provisions containing; FCTC; increased from 24 words in 2011 to 164 words in 2018, and the content of the provisions became more concrete over time. There are six trade agreements containing “FCTC”, and all these 6 agreements were ratified by European Union (EU). Despite EU ratified trade agreements with “FCTC”, the import and export values of tobacco products between EU and the other party countries increased with time. But the gap of average trade values between trade agreements with and without “FCTC” being widened with time. Conclusions: As a first study evaluated the impact of FCTC on regulatory contents of trade agreements, our study results showed that after countries signed trade agreements containing keyword FCTC, the regulatory contents changed significantly. Further studies are recommended to understand the reason and criteria for incorporating FCTC provisions into trade agreements, especially in the EU.