The methodology to estimate the demand and supply of national psychiatric services in Taiwan from 2005 to 2030

Background: The transformation from institutionalization to community-based mental healthcare may increase the difficulty of psychiatric workforce estimation and change the role of psychiatrists in hospitals and private clinics. Methods: This study aimed to estimate the growth and forecast psychiatric services in hospitals and private clinics in Taiwan from 2005 to 2030. We first examined the correlation between the number of psychiatrists and several indicators of psychiatric services. The forecast of the national demand for psychiatrists was based on projected outpatient psychiatrist visits from historical data. We also estimated the supply of psychiatrists by the number of psychiatrists practicing in hospitals or private clinics from Taiwan's Medical Affairs System and examined the supply and demand of the psychiatrist workforce through 2030. Results: Outpatient visit was the most relevant indicator of psychiatric services to psychiatrist workforce. Growth rates in private clinics were higher than the hospital counterparts within the following decade (172.3 % vs. 37.7 %) and in the following decade (42.3 % vs. 13.3 %). The hospital-clinic disparity in the growth of psychiatric services also reflects the shortage of psychiatrists in private clinics but not in hospitals through 2030. The supply of 1158 psychiatrists in hospitals would nearly equal the clinical-based demand of 1156 psychiatrists in 2030. By contrast, the supply of 514 psychiatrists in private clinics would be lower than the clinical-based demand of 636 psychiatrists in 2030. Conclusion: The hospital–clinic disparity in the growth of psychiatric services reflects the transformation from hospital-based to community-based mental healthcare in Taiwan.