TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluating medical capacity for hospitalization and intensive care unit of COVID-19
T2 - A queue model approach
AU - Jen, Grace Hsiao Hsuan
AU - Chen, Shey Ying
AU - Chang, Wei Jung
AU - Chen, Chiung Nien
AU - Yen, Ming-Fang
AU - Chang, Ray E.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan ( MOST 108-2118-M-038-001-MY3 ; MOST 108-2118-M-002-002-MY3 ; MOST 109-2327-B-002-009 ; MOST 109-2811-M-002-643 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/6
Y1 - 2021/6
N2 - Background: The surge of COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe respiratory conditions and a large number of deaths due to the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) in many countries. Methods: We developed a compartment queue model to describe the process from case confirmation, home-based isolation, hospitalization, ICU, recovery, and death. By using public assessed data in Lombardy, Italy, we estimated two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU. The excess ICU needs were estimated in Lombardy, Italy, and other countries when data were available, including France, Spain, Belgium, New York State in the USA, South Korea, and Japan. Results: In Lombardy, Italy, the congestion of isolation beds had increased from 2.2 to the peak of 6.0 in March and started to decline to 3.9 as of 9th May, whereas the demand for ICU during the same period has not decreased yet with an increasing trend from 2.9 to 8.0. The results showed the unmet ICU need from the second week in March as of 9th May. The same situation was shown in France, Spain, Belgium, and New York State, USA but not for South Korea and Japan. The results with data until December 2020 for Lombardy, Italy were also estimated to reflect the demand for hospitalization and ICU after the occurrence of viral variants. Conclusion: Two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU beds using open assessed tabulated data with a compartment queue model underpinning were developed to monitor the clinical capacity in hospitals in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
AB - Background: The surge of COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe respiratory conditions and a large number of deaths due to the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) in many countries. Methods: We developed a compartment queue model to describe the process from case confirmation, home-based isolation, hospitalization, ICU, recovery, and death. By using public assessed data in Lombardy, Italy, we estimated two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU. The excess ICU needs were estimated in Lombardy, Italy, and other countries when data were available, including France, Spain, Belgium, New York State in the USA, South Korea, and Japan. Results: In Lombardy, Italy, the congestion of isolation beds had increased from 2.2 to the peak of 6.0 in March and started to decline to 3.9 as of 9th May, whereas the demand for ICU during the same period has not decreased yet with an increasing trend from 2.9 to 8.0. The results showed the unmet ICU need from the second week in March as of 9th May. The same situation was shown in France, Spain, Belgium, and New York State, USA but not for South Korea and Japan. The results with data until December 2020 for Lombardy, Italy were also estimated to reflect the demand for hospitalization and ICU after the occurrence of viral variants. Conclusion: Two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU beds using open assessed tabulated data with a compartment queue model underpinning were developed to monitor the clinical capacity in hospitals in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
KW - Capacity
KW - Compartment model
KW - COVID-19
KW - Intensive care unit
KW - Queue model
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.002
DO - 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.002
M3 - Article
C2 - 34030945
AN - SCOPUS:85106601701
SN - 0929-6646
VL - 120
SP - S86-S94
JO - Journal of the Formosan Medical Association
JF - Journal of the Formosan Medical Association
ER -