Comparison between multiple logistic regression and machine learning methods in prediction of abnormal thallium scans in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been increasing dramatically in recent decades, and 47.5% of T2D patients will die of cardiovascular disease. Thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scan (MPS) is a precise and non-invasive method to detect coronary artery disease (CAD). Most previous studies used traditional logistic regression (LGR) to evaluate the risks for abnormal CAD. Rapidly developing machine learning (Mach-L) techniques could potentially outperform LGR in capturing non-linear relationships.

AIM: To aims were: (1) Compare the accuracy of Mach-L methods and LGR; and (2) Found the most important factors for abnormal TMPS.

METHODS: 556 T2D were enrolled in the study (287 men and 269 women). Demographic and biochemistry data were used as independent variables and the sum of stressed score derived from MPS scan was the dependent variable. Subjects with a MPS score ≥ 9 were defined as abnormal. In addition to traditional LGR, classification and regression tree (CART), random forest, Naïve Bayes, and eXtreme gradient boosting were also applied. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the receiver operation curve were used to evaluate the respective accuracy of LGR and Mach-L methods.

RESULTS: Except for CART, the other Mach-L methods outperformed LGR, with gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking emerging as the most important factors to predict abnormal MPS.

CONCLUSION: Four Mach-L methods are found to outperform LGR in predicting abnormal TMPS in Chinese T2D, with the most important risk factors being gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking.