Untargeted metabolomics predicts the functional outcome of ischemic stroke

Background/purpose: Metabolites in blood have been found associated with the occurrence of vascular diseases, but its role in the functional recovery of stroke is unclear. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the untargeted metabolomics at the acute stage of ischemic stroke is able to predict functional recovery. Methods: One hundred and fifty patients with acute ischemic stroke were recruited and followed up for 3 months. Fasting blood samples within 7 days of stroke were obtained, liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry were applied to identify outcome-associated metabolites. The patients’ clinical characteristics and identified metabolites were included for constructing the outcome prediction model using machine learning approaches. Results: By using multivariate analysis, 220 differentially expressed metabolites (DEMs) were discovered between patients with favorable outcomes (modified Rankin Scale, mRS ≤ 2 at 3 months, n = 77) and unfavorable outcomes (mRS ≥ 3 at 3 months, n = 73). After feature selection, 63 DEMs were chosen for constructing the outcome prediction model. The predictive accuracy was below 0.65 when including patients' clinical characteristics, and could reach 0.80 when including patients' clinical characteristics and 63 selected DEMs. The functional enrichment analysis identified platelet activating factor (PAF) as the strongest outcome-associated metabolite, which involved in proinflammatory mediators release, arachidonic acid metabolism, eosinophil degranulation, and production of reactive oxygen species. Conclusion: Metabolomics is a potential method to explore the blood biomarkers of acute ischemic stroke. The patients with unfavorable outcomes had a lower PAF level compared to those with favorable outcomes.