Supply and demand in relation to diagnostic radiologists in Taiwan over the next 10 years

The aim of this study was to assess supply of and demand for diagnostic radiologists in Taiwan over the next 10 years. The number of radiologists needed in 2015 was assessed on the basis of the utility of medical resources and the composition of the population in Taiwan in 2004. To predict the manpower supply, we hypothesized how many new radiologists will be enrolled over the next 10 years. The database was obtained from three areas: National Health Insurance, Council for Economic Planning and Development, and Ministry of the Interior, Executive Yuan, in Taiwan. To maintain the current annual workload, 630-655 radiologists will be needed in 2015. This estimation was normalized to the growth and ageing of the population at that time. This is equivalent to 2.7-2.8 radiologists per 100,000 people. If 30-50 new radiologists are supplied annually, a total of 766-926 radiologists will be enrolled for service in 2015, and the workload for each radiologist will be less than the current workload by 18-32%. Results from our data indicate that an annual growth of 50 new radiologists will be needed in order to reach the radiologist-to-population ratio of other developed countries. However, considering the growth of other specialties and the medical policy in Taiwan, we suggest an annual growth of 40 new radiologists, so that a standard of 3.6 radiologists per 100,000 people can be reached, with adjustment for the ageing population and the growth of the workload from advanced technology.