Projection of the Prevalence and Economic Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Taiwan From 2022 to 2027 (Inside CKD): A Microsimulation Study

Aim: This study aimed to project the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its economic impact in Taiwan from 2022 to 2027 using a microsimulation model. Methods: A virtual representative population of Taiwan was generated using demographic data. The cohort then underwent annual progression using a validated patient-level microsimulation technique, projecting CKD onset and progression based on various factors, including age, sex, eGFR, and urine albumin level. The model also incorporated associated comorbidities like type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension and complications such as heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Healthcare costs associated with diagnosed CKD and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) were also projected. Results: In 2022, an estimated 10.6% of the total population (2.5 million individuals) in Taiwan were affected by documented or undiagnosed CKD. Without changes in care standards, this prevalence is projected to rise to 12.4% (3.0 million individuals) by 2027, a relative increase of 17.1%. The prevalence of KRT is expected to grow by 7.0% from 2022 to 2027. Complications related to CKD, including heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, are also projected to increase. The annual healthcare costs for diagnosed CKD and KRT are anticipated to rise by 19.7% from TWD $51.96 billion in 2022 to TWD $62.18 billion in 2027. Conclusion: The projections underscore the escalating burden of CKD in Taiwan, emphasising the need for proactive strategies focusing on early diagnosis, effective management, and public awareness to mitigate the disease's socioeconomic impact.