Forecasting future HIV infection cases: evidence from Indonesia

Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, Hsiu Ting Tsai, Cheng Wen Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Countries throughout the world, including Indonesia, are facing a complex problem with regards to HIV infection incidences and its prevalence. This is despite some local governments in some provinces of Indonesia working together with the Social Ministry of Indonesia to eradicate prostitution. There are high numbers of HIV sub-types in Indonesia such as HIV-1 (CRF01_AE and B). The forecast was conducted with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The ARMA (1,1) was observed to be the best model for forecasting the number of HIV patients in Indonesia. This forecasting has been done since March 2019. Based on its dynamic forecasting with ARMA (1,1), this study proved the number of HIV-positive patients, from 2019 to 2030, had increased from 22,679 to 36,255, by almost 37% within 12 years. Indonesia is facing a growing trend in the number of new HIV cases, until 2030 which caused by stopped their follow-up treatments or they have ceased in consuming the Antiretroviral drugs even though the Indonesian government was provided national health insurance which covers the Antiretroviral drug and a limited number of health-care services providing the Antiretroviral therapy. Therefore, investigations focusing on estimate the number of HIV patients in Indonesia is an important finding. The information can be used as a resource for policy and decision making for plans and programs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)12-25
Number of pages14
JournalSocial Work in Public Health
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2021


  • antiretroviral
  • autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
  • forecasting
  • Human Immunodeficiency Virus
  • indonesia

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health(social science)
  • Health Policy
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health


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