Assessment of Predictive Scoring System for 90-Day Mortality Among Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Who Have Completed Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

Kuan Chou Lin, Tsung Ming Chen, Kevin Sheng Po Yuan, Alexander T.H. Wu, Szu Yuan Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Importance: There is currently no system to predict 90-day morality among patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) after the completion of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Objective: To validate the accuracy of a predictive scoring system for 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who have completed CCRT. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included 16 029 patients with HNSCC who completed CCRT between January 2006 and December 2015. Data were extracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database. A risk scoring system was developed based on significant risk factors and corresponding risk coefficients. Data analysis was conducted from June 2018 to February 2019. Exposures: Mortality within 90 days of completion of definitive CCRT. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 90-day mortality rate after completion of CCRT and the accuracy of the scoring system, based on a comparison of mortality rates between training and test data sets. Results: Among 16 029 patients with locally advanced HNSCC, 1068 (6.66%; 1016 [95.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 55.11 [11.45] years) died before reaching the 90-day threshold, and 14 961 (93.4%; 14 080 [94.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 52.07 [9.99] years) survived. Multivariable analysis revealed that being aged 50 years or older (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.263; 95% CI, 1.104-1.445; P < .001), being aged 70 years or older (aHR, 2.183; 95% CI, 1.801-2.645; P < .001), having pneumonia (aHR, 1.946; 95% CI, 1.636-2.314; P < .001), having sepsis (aHR, 3.005; 95% CI, 2.503-3.607; P < .001), having hemiplegia (aHR, 1.430; 95% CI, 1.085-1.884; P = .01), having moderate or severe renal disease (aHR, 2.054; 95% CI, 1.643-2.568; P < .001), having leukemia (aHR, 4.541; 95% CI, 1.132-8.207; P = .03), and having non-HNSCC metastatic solid cancers (aHR, 1.457; 95% CI, 1.292-1.644; P < .001) were significant risk factors for 90-day mortality. Risk scores were categorized as very low risk (score of 0), low risk (score 1-3), moderate risk (score 4-6), and high risk (score ≥7), with 90-day mortality rates of 3.37%, 5.00% to 10.98%, 16.15% to 29.13%, and 33.93% to 37.50%, respectively. Mortality rates for patients with the same risk score in the training and test data sets were similar (score of 0, 3.27% vs 3.66%; score of 6, 27.42% vs 25.00%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a 90-day mortality scoring system accurately predicted 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who completed CCRT.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere1920671
Pages (from-to)e1920671
JournalJAMA network open
Volume3
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Medicine

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