Establishment of A System Dynamics Simulation Model for Decision Support of Preparedness of Epidemic Prevention Materials in Infectious Diseases

Since the SARS Epidemic took place in 2003, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) had improved the national inventory system of epidemic prevention materials in order to control the demand-over-supply problem. This included establishments of three-level inventory systems including: the CDC, local governments and hospitals, and installation of Management Information System (MIS) for the surveillance of demand requested by health care organizations. This has been an effective infrastructure for the readiness of epidemic prevention materials. However, after the SARS, the three inventory levels have stocked tremendous amounts of personal protective equipment (PPE). Though this size of inventory could avoid the material shortage in case of outbreak, low turnover rate of PPE has increased the inventory cost and produced lots of expired PPE. The study objective is to develop a system dynamic simulation model for the decision making of epidemic prevention materials in Taiwan. This project has two phases, the first phase (2014) aims to propose policy suggestions for the further development of decision support system (DSS) based on developing a system dynamic modelling experience and its test results. The second phase aims to design the decision support system. The first-phase study had completed the examination of the MIS system, analyzing MIS data of epidemic prevention materials in the influenza and the non-epidemic period; and proposed a preliminary system dynamic model in hospitals base and the direction of improving PPE calculation method. The DSS can be further designed based on this result. The second-phase (2015) study will continue to resolving the issues occurred in the previous stage and refine the variables and parameters. The major tasks will focus on clarification of some doubtful variables, determination of parameters and indication of risks in decision making, and hence design the decision support system. The design requirement of the DSS will be identified through several meetings between the CDC staff and research team. After the requirements are clarified, the DSS will be programed and tested accordingly.