建構防疫物資應變整備之系統動態模擬決策支援模式

Since the SARS Epidemic took place in 2003, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) had improved the national inventory system of epidemic prevention materials in order to control the demand-over-supply problem. This included establishments of three level inventory systems, including; the CDC, local governments and hospitals, and installation of Management Information System (MIS) for the surveillance of demand requested by health care organizations. This has been an effective infrastructure for the readiness of epidemic prevention materials. However, after the SARS, the three inventory levels have stocked tremendous amounts of personal protective equipment (PPE). Though this size of inventory could avoid the material shortage in case of outbreak, low turnover rate of PPE has increased the inventory cost and produced lots of expired PPE. Therefore, the study aims to develop a system dynamic simulation model for the decision making of epidemic prevention materials in Taiwan, and to comment on the simulation results of high and low fatality rate of two influenza scenarios. The research methods are literature review, experts’ interview and MIS systems analysis, in order to determine the patterns and system boundary, variables and parameters. This project completed the analysis of the structure, functions, and transactions of the three-level inventory system. In addition, a preliminary system dynamic model for the hospitals’ PPE was developed. It can process two scenario including influenza period and non-epidemic period. This model was tested to be valid for the consumption of N95 and surgical mask in the non-epidemic period, however variables and parameters were still to be adjusted for the simulation of influenza period. Although there are still problems in some variables which affect the modelling, the study has completed the examination of the MIS system, analyzing MIS data of epidemic prevention materials in the epidemic and the non-epidemic; and proposed a preliminary system dynamic model in hospitals base, and the direction of improving PPE calculation method. The future refinement of the dynamics model of epidemic prevention materials and further the decision support system can be developed based on this research.